...with Sonia DumasAuthor: Jim Eckel | March 02, 2021 | 0 Comments | 110 View(s)
Jim…with Sonia Dumas
JIM - Well, hello there. Welcome to Jim's Money Gym, the podcast brought to you by FinancialAdvisors.com, the consumer friendly, highly informative advisor directory, which will help you Plan the Possibilities. I'm your host, Jim Eckel, and we will be having the latest conversations about money to get great insight and advice from some of the savviest investors, and knowledgeable financial advisors out there. Yes, it's time to take your financial brain for a vigorous workout.
As a former advisor, I know how essential credible financial information is for just about everyone. So, I started Jim's Money Gym. I hold the CFP credential and I've worked in the financial services and charitable planning industries for over 30 years.
So, let's get started exercising that brain of yours. One timely topic we have heard so much about lately is Finance 3.0 and cryptocurrencies. They're making steady inroads in the financial sector, and I thought I would invite a leading expert to give us her take on the subject.
My guest today, Sonia Dumas, is a recognized authority on all matters crypto. She graduated from the University of Southern California, the creator of the Alt Monie newsletter focused on e-commerce, crypto, the digital wealth shift, and the internet economy.
JIM - Hi Sonia. So glad you could join me here on the inaugural episode of Jim's Money Gym.
SONIA - Hi, Jim. So good to be here.
JIM - Well, Sonia please tell us a little bit about yourself. How long have you been in the financial services industry and in what capacity and, you know, just start us out.
SONIA - Sure. So, since 2016, I have created and develop marketing strategies for both financial firms and syntech firms. And this was really the beginning of my education concerning digital finance and really the myriad of ways that financial companies try to squeeze out every extra basis point of extra alpha in traditional markets. I'm a geek that is all about using tech to extract maximum value out of commerce.
JIM – So, Sonia, what is Finance 3.0, and why should investors concern themselves with it?
SONIA - Well, Jim in its simplest form Finance 3.0 really just relies on computer code to basically create new levels of wealth generation that doesn't typically exist in the stock markets, bonds or even in commodities to date. So, in Finance 3.0, you know, the opportunities to earn interest now can happen on a variety of platforms. So, this also includes art. It includes software. It includes real estate. You know, the details of an economic transaction can be packaged into code and have a buyers and sellers market, then it becomes a new form of wealth generation. And so, what investors need to pay attention to is the fact of what is valuable is shifting, and like any market when your users and customers prefer to use an alternative to the status quo, you need to pay attention, because pretty much this is how empires are overthrown, right? All throughout history, a new market emerges, and you know, the status quo ignores it at their own peril. And you know, I look at it as, a lot of us, we don't understand how Google works, right? Like, do we actually understand Google's algorithms? No, but that doesn't change the fact that the way we advertise, the way we interact with the internet, the way we engage in commerce, has been fundamentally changed. And so, one of the things I recognize in crypto is ignorance doesn't stop innovation. So, the best thing to do is get educated. Yes, the learning curve for crypto is quite steep.
JIM - So, profound information out there as far as how people come to value, these things, you know, it's just a new way to think and hard to get your arms around it. But well, if you're working with a financial advisor, say you’re a consumer working with a financial advisor, how can an investor or a consumer tell if the advisor is knowledgeable of Finance 3.0?
SONIA – Finance 3.0? How are they knowledgeable about crypto? You know, Finance 3.0, there's a lot of intersections that are happening as far as edge computing, decentralized data, and some of that's over people's heads. So, I look at it as, let's drill down into how does your financial advisor know enough about crypto or what questions you can ask? And I say there are a couple of things you can ask. Actually, two key things. First of all, even if you don't know the answer to these questions, that's not the point. The point is, does your financial advisor know? I would say ask them. What are the key differences between Bitcoin, Ethereum, Chainlink and Uniswap? Because those are four of the foundational projects in crypto right now. And so, when you ask that question, sit back, and let the silence soak in and see what happens. Because if they can't answer the difference, the fundamental difference between Bitcoin, Ethereum, Chainlink, and Uniswap, their education needs to increase. That's all that says, right? That they don't necessarily know enough to be able to advise you, and that includes crypto ETFs. Because if you can't tell me how those four protocols work, I doubt your ability to give me great information or helpful information to help me make my, you know, my crypto based decision. And I would also ask a very blunt question; how many crypto projects do you own? Which ones and why? Because even though crypto is very volatile when it comes to pricing, solid projects are actually creating something of utility and value. And so, they can explain to you why they're in a particular crypto, which ones, or if they even own any crypto. So, if they don't even own any crypto, how are they going to educate you about a crypto ETF or even going into Bitcoin or maybe utilizing an index fund that's crypto based? You have to be able to understand the industry, especially with crypto because of the volatility. And it really is a disservice to have someone get into crypto especially if you're advising them or encouraging them. I wouldn't say really encouraging, but if you're advising them along those lines, you want to be able to help them understand the mood swings of crypto, and if you've been through it personally, you can say, you know what, there's some seasonality here, you know, on this particular certain time during the year, you know, 20% to 40% to 50% drops. Yeah. That's normal. Right? So, those are some things that I would say ask, right? Ask about four specific crypto projects, Bitcoin, Ethereum, Chainlink, Uniswap, and ask them about the crypto projects they own, which ones and why.
JIM - Very good. That's a great answer. Yeah. Well, Sonya, let me ask you another question. In layman's terms, and I do mean layman's terms, what should investors be aware of in deciding if cryptocurrencies are a good investment portfolio?
SONIA - So, this is not financial advice, right? Disclaimer here, you know, just to be transparent. A lot of people have no emotional capacity to handle crypto. Money is emotional, and if you're easily panicked over a 10% drop in the stock market, there's no way you're going to emotionally handle the 30% drops of Bitcoin or Ethereum or any solid project. I mean, you can just go to crypto Twitter. That neighborhood of Twitter, and all day long, people are panic buying, panic selling, and completely burning their accounts. And so, I say, you know, if you're adamant about getting some exposure to crypto, then at the bare minimum, get educated, start super small, and talk to a financial advisor who personally owned some Bitcoin or Ethereum for a year or longer. The reason why this is important is because they would have emotionally experienced the price drops, the recovery. They would experience the market FOMO, whether it's panicking up or you know, panicking into a bull market, panicking into a bear market. And then they can let you know, like, look, here's what you can realistically expect. And you have to go beyond the returns because there's the emotional side of it. And crypto is very emotional. It's, it's very temperamental. And you have to understand that before you even think about the exposure. You get lured in by the, you know Bitcoin's been earning 200% a year. Yeah. But that 200% a year has also included 30% to 50% to 60% drops. Are you okay with that?
JIM - Well, it would probably be fair to say that most people wouldn't be. That's why the industry itself sells software like a Tolerisk and Riskalyze to advisors, so advisors can understand the risk tolerance of their investors. So, that's a good thing to know. But what are the cryptocurrency exchanges all about like Coinbase and the Winklevoss brothers’ Gemini?
SONIA - So, yeah, you know, they are no different than the NASDAQ. They’re just a centralized exchange to buy crypto. You open your account, you send some money over, you buy crypto and you're in. It's no different than anything most people have exposure to when it comes to the stock market. Now, things get complicated the minute you want to move your crypto from an exchange to a private wallet. And that's where the complication kicks in. If you just keep it on Coinbase and Gemini, it's no different than your TD Ameritrade account, but the minute you want to move that crypto into the DeFi space, or you want to go after NFTs, you know, chase, you know, double digit staking rewards, and farming and pools. That's a more advanced topic that, you know, we can definitely have a discussion later, but that's an advanced topic. But for the basics, you open up an account, send your money over, you buy crypto, and you get to join the rest of us in the 30% to 40% ups and downs and everything in between.
JIM - It's kind of like you said, start small. So, it'd be a nice place to put your toe in the water. Tough thing.
SONIA - Exactly. Yeah.
JIM - Okay. How close are we to having the Securities and Exchange Commission, otherwise known as the SEC, sanction cryptocurrency ETFs, and mutual funds in the United States?
SONIA - It's a great question. It's a hot topic right now. I look at it like this. You know, the benefits of an ETF is the ease of use for most people. Right? So, and they already, you know, exist like as far as like ETF exposure. And so, the benefits to traditional finance is that they get to make fees due to this convenience factor that's built in. And so, if you don't want to deal with wallets and seed phrases, and if you don't want to dive into the DeFi world, then ETFs are an easy way to get exposure whenever they get approved. You know, there's already index funds that exist like Grayscale and Bitwise. You know, they give an investor a certain amount of exposure to some of the top 10 cryptos. They charge about two, two and a half percent in annual fees for this exposure. And as far as, you know, when will the SEC approve it, who knows. Whether it's a Bitcoin ETF, whether it's a basket of crypto coins as an ETF, when it'll be approved, like I said, who knows, governments are historically slow when it comes to innovation. And the thing that people need to realize is the longer it takes for whether, you know, an ETF to actually get approved, I believe that less alpha will be available for these late adopters. So, while the SEC is trying to figure it out, here's the thing. I mean, look at the ripple effect first, the SEC needs to approve it. Right? And then the financial firms, each individual one has to make a decision on what their stance and policy is going to be. And then eventually it filters down to the advisor and then eventually it filters down to their clients. How long is that going to take? Is Bitcoin going to be at a million dollars at that point?
At some point, the longer it takes it…because crypto moves fast. In fact, I was just telling some of my mastermind members, basically every month crypto is different. And what didn't exist, and what exists now, some stuff didn't even exist 30 days ago. And so, because of that fast movement, alpha moves fast, and it doesn't stay static for very long.
So, who knows how long this it’s going to take? But, you know, I would say regardless of how long it takes the SEC, your education needs to start like yesterday, because you need to understand that even if it's approved, well one, you can access crypto yourself. The whole idea is though do you feel confident enough? Are you educated enough? What's your risk tolerance? What's your emotional relationship with money? Because if you know, you're easily led by greed, you're going to burn your account. If you're easily led by fear, you're going to burn your account. So, there's a lot to consider. And so, I look at it as the longer it takes the government to give guidance, the firms to give guidance, the advisors to be clear on what they can and can't do, Alpha is just getting smaller and smaller and smaller. In my opinion.
JIM – Yeah, it seems like every financial advisor out there or investor always been chasing alpha, and I mean, you could see that on the website called Seeking Alpha. How large is the cryptocurrency market today and what percentage is it when you compare it to all money? If you look at money?
SONIA - All right. So, I mean, last time I looked at, you know, money numbers, and I'm sure everyone can Google this, I think there's approximately $40 trillion in circulation right now. And this includes physical money and money that's like in your checking and savings account. And then there's money in the form of like investments, derivatives, and cryptocurrencies, and that exceeds somewhere around $1.3 quadrillion, something in that range. And so, of that, cryptocurrency currently represents just shy of $2 trillion as of this recording. And $2 trillion is really just the beginning. There are estimates that crypto will grow to exceed $10 trillion. So, we still have a long way to go, but that can happen fast. You know, last year in 2020, you know, there was a time where the cryptocurrency market was fluctuating around like $300 billion and now it's $2 trillion. That was just last year. So, the movement of money happens fast. So, you know, when I hear people say, oh, five, 10 years out, that's too long of a period to think that it's going to move slowly. Tech innovation moves fast. Crypto and Bitcoin, blockchain moves fast. And so, my time horizon is always what's the next 24 months. Like stick to that, stick to a tight time horizon of 24 months, because even a year is completely different, but at least 24 months is enough time to see if the trend is still in, essentially.
JIM - Well, this might have been asked and answered however, I'll ask it again. Do you have any projections regarding the growth of cryptocurrencies? Because we know that there's two things here. There's the growth of the money itself, actually the underlying value of the crypto, but there's also the growth that they call ICO's, as far as how many new ICO's are being made. And then when you bring in what the first part of this call, you know, I think you mentioned tokenism, how does that all relate to the growth of the entire market when you compare, what did you say, $1.3 quadrillion, like that's, oh my God. I don't think I've ever seen that number, that many zeros next to it, but anyway, go ahead.
SONIA - Yeah. So, I would say next 24 months is definitely going to be wild. Crypto should have died during the 2020 COVID panic. But instead, after it tanked, it reached all-time highs like less than three months later. And so, what'll be interesting to see is during a true recession or bear market, where do people believe their money will be safe and stay ahead of inflation? Will it be stocks, bonds real estate, or will it be crypto? And so, the longer crypto stays resilient in both bull and bear market conditions, the more it solidifies its place as a valuable asset. And so, I look at it from that standpoint. I’m definitely a believer in the store of value and, you know, people like to really smash on Bitcoin when they're like, oh, it's $60,000 now it's $40,000. Well, you know, what's the store of value there? I would say, well, look at commodities, look at the value of the dollar. Where's the store of value there? Store of value, at the end of the day, I look at as what do people believe is valuable, right? One point it was coconut shells, tulips, badger skins, coffee beans, and then it turned into, you know, Roman denari, you know, gold coins.
So, value is always what the human beings say is valuable. And you know, there are people who have, you know, owned like some gold and silver and they're still underwater. Why haven't they given it up? Because in their minds, it's still valuable. Right? So, at the end of the day, you know, we all know people who are holding on the real estate projects, they should have sold decades ago. Right? And they're underwater, but why is it valuable to them? I don't know. And so, it's all about what we collectively see is valuable. I think we're having a lot more independent thought versus being told what's value. And so, this is why in crypto, we all get very educated. If you follow any legitimate influencer, they will always tell you, do your due diligence. Do your own research, and convince yourself. And some of its super technical, trust me, crypto is super technical and I don't go down that road. I look at the big picture of what someone's trying to create, what a protocol is trying to create, what a project's trying to create, and then from there I make my decisions, and see how far down the rabbit hole that I go.
JIM - Some people might call you the new Alice then, you know.
SONIA - There's a lot of us crammed down that hole, I tell you.
JIM - What countries have adopted cryptocurrencies, and which ones make it difficult for people to transact cryptocurrencies, especially in light of the news this week regarding China?
SONIA - So, I would say that most countries have adopted or tolerated crypto to some extent. China, Iran, India, you know, they're all trying not to lose their economic grip and control over their citizens. Almost every other week, they're either attempting to ban crypto. And to me, that's like saying, I'm going to ban the internet. Really? How do you turn that off exactly? And here's the crazy part. When it comes to especially Bitcoin adoption, if you watch some of these documentaries like Asia, China specifically, they were where some of the most innovative companies were coming out of. Bitcoin ATM machines were coming out of China. So, if China wanted to really squash crypto, they could have done it in its infancy. But now they're seeing, it's getting a little bit out of their control. And the name of the game is control. Right? What's financial freedom about? It's about the freedom part. And so crypto is also helping the world to see who actually cares about they're citizens and their economic wealth. Who's putting up the flag of safety, but safety for who exactly? And so, all of us are questioning things that we've been just fed to believe is normal. Countries are either adopting it or they're tolerating it. The U S with its regulations is just freaking all over the place. You know, it seems like every other week, the SEC is just doing a shotgun approach to sue all crypto projects. Ripple, Coinbase. Coinbase went through the SEC to get a whole bunch of approvals and now the SEC is suing them. If people are making money in crypto and they're US-based, the SEC is definitely targeting them. And you have to really remove the sugarcoating, in that, you know, crypto is a direct threat to Wall Street. That's why we see such increased talks of, we got a regulate this madness, right? Under the narrative, we're here to protect investors. Well, you know, I always default back to, well, where was that protection in 2008? When derivatives and all kinds of interesting products that didn't really exist in the real estate market just showed up magically. Like, where was the investor protection then?
JIM - It was very poor in hindsight; they spent a lot of money. The government spent a lot of money looking back on that too, in 2006, 7, 8. Crunch time breakdown and they made a couple of movies out of it and so forth. Nobody went to jail, which is amazing. And now there are those same people going, “Well, you know, we don't know about this…” Makes you wonder.
SONIA – Yeah, the minute someone is in your back pocket, their priorities shift.
JIM - Oh, yeah.
SONIA - The idea that, you know, you've been making money whether as a bank or as some financial institution based on the status quo. And that's what I said earlier, when the status quo is threatened, it's usually threatened by its user base, and consumers start wanting something different. And someone who comes along with an alternative, whatever that is, pick an industry, you know, finance is just where we're at right now. But any industry, when an alternative comes along, it's an absolute direct threat. If you actually dig into the archives of when the internet started, the government tried to shut the internet down. Bill Gates and Microsoft, and a bunch of the early day internet companies that told the government, “Hey, give us some time to innovate.” Now in hindsight, I'm pretty sure they wished they would have squashed it, right? Now, the tech companies have more clout than the government does. There was an attempt to shut the internet down or to have it regulated. And they're like, you can't regulate innovation. Give us some time to see what this looks like. And I think maybe they're having some PTSD of that moment because they're like, wait a minute, if we leave crypto to do its own thing, it's not going to take long for it to not add to the equation anymore.
JIM - I can recall that happening back in the early nineties when Berners-Lee brought it out and the guys at the time, the IBM's and the Microsofts and so forth. And I think the geniuses at Microsoft started thinking there's not a chance in hell that we could actually be behind the curve ball. The more, they looked at it and said, well, maybe there is a possibility they could be behind the curve ball. And that's when they started all these protestations about maybe control this and so forth because he had been, well, the first PC came out in ‘81, the IBM, you know, and he had 10, 12 years of just soaking up money. And he, he decided to get with Windows and the Wintel, I mean, we all remember, as old as I am, we all remember the Wintel monopoly in the late nineties. I mean, it was, invest in Microsoft and Intel and make money, you know, but anyway, we've talked a great deal Sonia about this subject and it's truly difficult to keep it all in one place in your brain, because this is supposed to be about an exercise for your brain. And this has been a real exercise. Where should an investor turn for education on this subject called Finance 3.0?
SONIA - So there's a couple of websites. Decrypt.com, CoinDesk, Coin Telegram, The Defiant, Cryptoslate, Casebitcoin.com. You know, they're all good places to start. Look for conversations around you know, crypto Twitter, and there are good conversations that actually do happen on crypto Twitter. So, if you see the one that says, hey, here's how I made 500%, join my telegram, here’s my discord. Pass, just pass. Chico crypto, he's on YouTube now. He talks high level, and I had to, when I first got into crypto, I had some friends tell me about him and I listened and I was like, I didn't understand anything he just said. But the thing is, I kept showing up, kept watching the videos and eventually you learn. Even if it's sound, if it feels like your brains exploding, listening to this stuff, that's a part of the process. All of us have this like, oh my God, what? Because a lot of it's in Devtalk. But I would say some of the major crypto influencers are positioning this in layman's terms a lot more.
JIM - Speaking in layman's term and keeping it for the general public to get involved with this newfound experience of Finance 3.0, the mutual funds have always been a way to actually diversify your investment for a small amount and so forth when you're not sure of the road. Do you know if there's any of those things hanging around? It's hard to get blessed by the SEC and the mutual fund industry and so forth. Are they working on those that have exposure to cryptocurrencies?
SONIA - I'm pretty sure they're being worked on. There already exist index funds, Grayscale, and Bitwise, two the largest or the most prominent and active, you know, kind of start there. I mean, at some point every advisor on the streets going to say, hey, we have a crypto ETF or crypto mutual fund. There will be at some point some level of normalization. And that's not happening today. I don't even think it'll happen in the next year. Like I said, everyone has to first figure out how they're going to get their slice of the pie.
JIM – Well, as you're on the display there, it says Sonia Dumas, Alt Monie.com. And I'd like to know, well, this is your newest offering called Alt Monie. I'd like you to talk a little bit about what exactly is Alt Monie.
SONIA – So, good question. So, I've been through about several crypto cycles, and last year I had really the honor to be able to teach over a hundred people how to smartly navigate and get exposure to crypto. And, you know, just so you know, Jim, my students ranged from 24 to 73. So, there is no excuse of I'm too old. No, not really. Or I'm too young. Not really. And so, what I created were some beginner classes, and it was clear to me, especially based on the research, that we were just at the beginning, and staying in step with innovation is both time intensive and it's very overwhelming. Because you have to ask yourself questions, like, how do I know if a crypto project is either on par with innovation, ahead of innovation, falling behind innovation? And so, what I decided to do was create Alt Monie to reflect the internet economy that's being powered by Web 3.0. So, after those beginner classes, it was clear to me that we were just at the beginning of crypto and we had to think through. I specially spend a lot of time researching, you know, how do we stay in step with innovation because this is both time intensive and it's very overwhelming. And our whole focus is on money innovations, e-commerce, and crypto. And I focus on those because I believe that all of those topics are future-proof. And here's the thing about crypto. Many people want the easy button; just tell me which crypto projects to buy and hold.
JIM – Right.
SONIA - That's usually how you get scammed. You know, a lot of people, they buy into these pump and dump projects, they read a white paper, a light paper. It sounds like a great use case. But here's the thing, a lot of scammers know most investors are passive and borderline lazy. So, they use this passivity to basically hype-up a shitty project and then dump the price at 3:00 AM, when most people are sleeping. So crypto, as it exists today, it's not in the set it, and forget it stage. It's still the wild west. There's still lessons to be learned. Security is still being increased and the limits of financial innovation is truly being stretched to the edges. And so, at Alt Monie, we share our research, and we advocate for everyone to do their due diligence before making their decisions, but also, to stay ahead of the innovation curve or stay at least with it. So that way you can make some smart decisions, not only just about, should I invest in crypto or shouldn't I. That's like a small aspect of crypto. What happens as a business owner? There are a lot of us who are business owners who are already thinking about crypto, like how can I stop paying 3% transaction fees? And what companies are allowing me to utilize crypto as a payment gateway. And a lot of these crypto payment gateways are less than 1%. So, I can save 2.5% per year on processing fees. So, this is like this next level of commerce. It was going to go beyond just, I opened up a Coinbase account and I own some Bitcoin. This is, I'm a business and what's a value to me; someone paying me in dollars or someone paying me in crypto. If they're paying in crypto, am I set up to easily except crypto? What does that look like for my accountant? CPAs - get on it, start learning what crypto is about from even a transaction standpoint.
Because yeah, the accounting books are about to get a little bit more complex, just a little. But there are crypto payment gateways that have found ways to stabilize the price. So, if someone sends you Bitcoin, they’ve found ways to stabilize the price. So that way if you sold something for a $100, more or less, you're going to get somewhere between $98 and hey, who knows, even $102, like just really depends. But they they're finding ways to stabilize that, because you know, as a business owner, you know, I want to know that when someone pays my invoice, that I'm getting at least the price that I invoiced for. Now hey, if I charged a $100 and they sent me Bitcoin, and now it's worth $110, I'm not upset…I’m not upset.
JIM - Yeah. It's tantamount to what I was listening to. This movie, I think it was called Cryptopia. There's a gentleman there, Wences Casares, that was one of the purveyors of the internet. It's a company called XAPO. He's an Argentinian. Somebody asked him, why did you start the company? He says, well, because my families lost their wealth three times due to devaluation in Argentina. There's a real-world event for why he's heavily invested in this. And it's all about, devaluing what you thought you had due to the world economies of these countries that you have, as a person, have no control over.
SONIA – And I remember it's a, yeah, it's a documentary on Amazon prime about crypto. And if I recall correctly, yeah, his family lost three times throughout their life, and twice was by the government.
JIM - True.
SONIA - So here we are. And, and I think, because we live in the Western world, it seems beyond us that that's never happened, but if history says anything, I was actually reading a study that showed that, you know, the average nation, you know, not to sound so doom and gloom, but you look at empires. They last about 250 years before a whole turnover happens. Right? And so, a lot of people don't know this, but America will be 250 years in 2026, less than five years. And I think it's interesting that crypto is probably going to be a part of whatever that turnover is going to look like. And it's a turn, it's a complete overhaul. There's no point in history where the transitioning events were like, easy and simple. They were like society-based, commerce, like everything was flipped upside down. Whatever was normal before, a new norm was created. And so, we'll see. Pay attention to the next four months. We're there.
JIM – Well Sonia, so this has been a truly, truly insightful, I must say. And thanks very much for dropping by Jim's Money Gym and shedding some light on this very top-of-mind subject for so many people. Once again, thank you very much for your time, Sonia, and for the listeners, could you please repeat, it's Alt Monie.com and your contact information if people want to get ahold of you to discuss maybe getting in some of these classes or a personal consultation, or whatever would be best that you get an understanding from an expert, and you being a true expert.
SONIA - For me personally, I'm on LinkedIn. So just find Sonia Dumas on LinkedIn. Reach out, let me know what you're interested in, and we can go from there.
JIM - Okay. Very good. Easy enough. Well, thanks again, Sonia, for joining us on Jim's Money Gym. You have a pleasant afternoon, a good day, and let's catch up later. And all for all you listeners, thanks again. And keep, keep on look out for the next Jim's Money Gym to talk about some unique aspect of our, what we know as money, in its various deviations, shall we say? So, thanks again, Sonia.
SONIA - All right. Thank you, Jim.
JIM - Bye bye.